An estimate of Covid-19 under-detection and under testing in India
You may have heard that India is not testing enough for Covid-19. Due to our limited resources and lack of availability of reliable test kits, it seems that it is true. So, how bad is it? We can get an estimate by making some reasonable assumptions. I tried to reach the number by making the following assumptions 1. Covid-19 has mortality rate of 2%. Perhaps it is lower in India. But, lets use this as start point 2. Covid-19 case outcome takes 15 days. 3. In India 4% is positivity rate - For every 25 samples taken, 1 case is positive We can do the following calculations: Death count on 21st May 2020 = 3584 By taking 2% mortality rate, on May 6th total infections should have been 3584 * 50 = 179200 Cases actually reported on May 6th = 53007 So under-detection rate on May 6th = 179200/53007 = 3.38 I have done this calculations over the pandemic period to see if this number is improving or not. And the good news is that - yes, we are improving. On March 25th t...
